Budgeting & Forecasting
Flexible Budgets
A flexible budget is one that adjusts (flexes) to the actual level of activity achieved, recalculating variable costs at that volume while keeping fixed costs constant. It provides a fair benchmark for comparing with actual results, unlike a fixed budget set for a single planned volume.
Real-world example
The budget is re-computed at the actual 12,000 units before comparing spend, so volume differences don't distort it.
Types of Budgets
Variance Analysis
Flexible Budgets
A fixed budget is set for one planned activity level. If actual volume differs, comparing actual costs to the fixed budget mixes up volume effects with efficiency and price effects—e.g., higher variable costs simply because more units were made look like overspending. Flexing the budget to actual volume removes this distortion.
Real-world example
Actual material cost looks over budget only because output exceeded plan; flexing reveals no real overspend.
Types of Budgets
Variance Analysis
Flexible Budgets
Separate costs into fixed and variable. Determine the variable cost per unit (or per driver) and the total fixed cost. To flex to actual activity, multiply variable cost per unit by actual units and add the fixed cost. This gives the allowed cost for the actual level of output, used as the control benchmark.
Flexed cost = (Variable cost/unit x actual units) + Fixed cost.
E.g., ($5 x 12,000) + $20,000 = $80,000.
Real-world example
At 12,000 units, the flexed budget allows $80,000, against which actual cost is compared.
Types of Budgets
Variance Analysis
Flexible Budgets
What is the difference between fixed, variable, and semi-variable costs in flexible budgeting?
IntermediateFixed costs stay constant regardless of activity within a range (rent). Variable costs change proportionally with activity (materials). Semi-variable (mixed) costs have both a fixed and a variable element (e.g., a phone bill with a standing charge plus usage). Flexible budgeting requires splitting mixed costs so only the variable part is flexed.
Real-world example
A utility with a fixed standing charge plus usage is split so only the usage element flexes with volume.
Flexible Budgets
Variance Analysis
Flexible Budgets
The high-low method estimates the variable cost per unit from the highest and lowest activity levels: variable cost per unit = (cost at high - cost at low) / (units at high - units at low). Fixed cost is then total cost minus variable cost at either level. It's simple but relies on only two points, so it can be inaccurate.
VC/unit = (High cost - Low cost) / (High units - Low units).
Real-world example
Using the busiest and quietest months, the analyst splits the mixed maintenance cost into fixed and variable parts.
Flexible Budgets
Types of Budgets
Flexible Budgets
Regression fits a line (cost = fixed + variable x activity) to all data points, not just two, using least squares. It gives more reliable estimates of fixed and variable elements and a measure of fit (R²). It improves on high-low by using the whole dataset, reducing the effect of outliers and giving statistical confidence.
Cost = a (fixed) + b (variable/unit) x activity; R² shows fit.
Real-world example
A regression on 24 months of overhead data gives a robust fixed/variable split with a high R².
Flexible Budgets
Variance Analysis
Flexible Budgets
The relevant range is the band of activity over which cost behavior assumptions hold—fixed costs stay fixed and variable cost per unit stays constant. Flexing a budget is only valid within this range; outside it, fixed costs may step up (more supervisors, extra premises) and unit variable costs may change, so the assumptions break down.
Real-world example
Doubling output beyond the relevant range forces a new factory lease, so 'fixed' costs step up.
Flexible Budgets
Types of Budgets
Flexible Budgets
A step fixed cost is fixed over a range of activity but jumps to a higher level once activity crosses a threshold (e.g., needing an extra supervisor per shift). In flexible budgeting it's treated as fixed within each step; when flexing across a step boundary, the higher fixed cost is used. Ignoring steps understates costs at higher volumes.
Real-world example
Adding a second production shift adds a supervisor's salary—a step up in 'fixed' cost at higher volume.
Flexible Budgets
Types of Budgets
Flexible Budgets
By flexing the budget to actual volume, the difference between the original (fixed) budget and the flexed budget is the sales/activity volume variance, while the difference between the flexed budget and actual results reflects price and efficiency variances. This two-stage comparison isolates the effect of producing/selling a different quantity from operating performance.
Fixed budget -> (volume variance) -> Flexed budget -> (price/efficiency) -> Actual.
Real-world example
The flexed budget cleanly splits 'we sold a different volume' from 'we spent differently per unit'.
Variance Analysis
Types of Budgets
Flexible Budgets
In control reports, actual results are compared to the flexed budget (not the original fixed budget), so variances reflect controllable performance at the actual activity level rather than volume differences. This makes variances meaningful and fair, focusing managers on genuine cost/efficiency issues within their control.
Real-world example
The monthly control report compares actual costs to the budget flexed to actual output for a fair view.
Variance Analysis
The Budgeting Process
Flexible Budgets