Budgeting & Forecasting › Rolling Forecasts
How do you measure and improve forecast accuracy?
AdvancedAnswer
Track accuracy with metrics like forecast error, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and bias (consistent over- or under-forecasting). Analyze errors to find causes, refine drivers and assumptions, remove bias, and feed learning back into the next forecast. Continuous measurement drives improvement and credibility.
MAPE = average of |actual - forecast| / actual x 100.Real-world example Tracking MAPE reveals a consistent optimistic bias in sales forecasts, which is then corrected.